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Prediction versus Explanation?
ICEWS is an early warning system designed to help US policy analysts predict a variety of international crises. This project was created at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency in 2007, but...
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Predictions in the Future: White or Black Swans?
Gilbert F. White was a giant in the field of natural hazards, and a former colleague in Boulder at the University of Colorado, where he was an early director (beginning in 1970) of the Institute of...
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The coup in Thailand and progress in forecasting
Thailand’s Army chief General Prayuth announces the coup on television on 22 May 2014. Source: SCMP This morning (May 22nd, 2014, East Coast time), the Thai military staged a coup against the caretaker...
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The right kind of variance
or, How I learned to stop worrying and love event data. Nobody in their right mind would think that the chances of civil war in Denmark and Mauritania are the same. One is a well-established democracy...
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When forecasting goes wrong (maybe): Yemen
Over the past few months we have worked on regularly updating our irregular leadership change models and forecasts in order to provide monthly 6-month ahead forecasts of the probability of irregular...
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Taking stock of the risk of coups d’etat in 2017
Coup attempts, even if they fail, as the events in Turkey since July 2016 have shown, can have a major impact on a country. And, as some of the reactions to the Turkey coup attempt have reiterated,...
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